continues to improve

Bad disposal, reinforcement, bank asset quality continues to improve

The regulatory authorities are guiding the banking industry to increase the disposal of non-performing loans. Industry insiders expect that the current relatively high provisioning level of the banking industry is conducive to the sustainability of write-off, strict asset classification, and prohibitive concealment and other requirements are conducive to the continued improvement of the quality of banking assets.

Encourage the increase of bad disposal

Since the beginning of this year, the regulatory authorities have been experiencing frequent policies to encourage bad disposal. Among them, in order to enhance the ability of bank credit to be issued, the Banking Regulatory Commission issued a request recently to make full use of the favorable conditions for adequate provisions, and on the basis of strict asset classification, comprehensive use of write-off, cash collection, batch transfer, etc., to increase the disposal of non-performing loans. Intensity, it is strictly forbidden to conceal hidden non-performing loans, and strictly investigate illegal behaviors such as false appearances and false transfers of non-performing assets.

The industry believes that the main purpose of the above policy is to accelerate the release of invisible banks.

The data shows that the bank’s provision coverage ratio was 178.70% at the end of the second quarter, and the loan provision rate was 3.33%, both higher than the regulatory requirements. Lian ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the relatively high provision level guarantees the sustainability of large-scale write-offs. The effect of relevant regulatory policies is expected to appear in the second half of the year. Banks use more provisions for non-performing loans. Disposal and write-offs are possible.

In addition to the traditional relying on profits and provisions for write-offs, more channels for poor disposal are expected to be exerted. The Banking Regulatory Commission previously issued the “Administrative Measures for Financial Assets Investment Companies (Trial)”. The industry expects that the stock banks have stronger incentives to separately set up financial asset investment companies, which is expected to become the main force for the next phase of expansion. In addition to asset management companies, financial asset investment companies may inject new vitality into the bad disposal market.

Non-performing loans are expected to remain stable throughout the year

According to data from the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, at the end of the second quarter, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 1.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter; the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.86%, up 0.12 percentage points from the end of the previous quarter; At the end of last quarter, it fell by 12.58 percentage points.

In terms of categories, at the end of the second quarter, the non-performing loan ratio of rural commercial banks increased by 1.03 percentage points to 4.29%, and the non-performing loan ratio of state-owned banks and stocks decreased by 2 basis points and 1 basis point respectively. The non-performing loan ratio of urban commercial banks increased slightly. 4 basis points.

“This rebound in non-performing rate is generally accelerated by the accumulation of non-performing loans, which is not a substantial deterioration in asset quality.” Tang Lihua, a researcher at the Hengfeng Bank Research Institute, said that the strict determination of non-performing loans will lead to a proportion of loan losses. Increase accordingly. The current industry provision coverage ratio remains at a relatively high level, and the bank’s risk-reward ability is in a relatively reasonable range relative to the losses that may be caused by stocks and potential credit risks.

From the perspective of listed banks that have published semi-annual reports or performance reports, the quality of these banks’ assets has mostly improved.

“The Bank of China’s recent Securities Regulatory Commission issued a document stressing the implementation of regulatory policies such as non-returning loans and due diligence, and improving the poor tolerance of small and micro enterprises’ loans. These measures reflect the structural orientation of regulatory policies for small and micro enterprise loans.” Huatai Securities principal Financial Researcher Shen Juan said that the follow-up attention should be paid to the growth of small and micro enterprise loans in the second half of the year, the small and micro enterprise loans will be exerted, and the marginal improvement of the operation stability of small and micro enterprises will be improved, and the asset quality is expected to stabilize. Driven by the continued repair of the assets of Dahang, it is expected that non-performing loans in the whole industry will maintain steady state momentum this year.

Lian ping expects that the bank’s non-performing loan ratio will remain at 1.7%-1.9% for the whole year, and it is difficult to see a sharp rise. The loan provision rate may fall slightly.

Still need to pay attention to some risk areas

The industry believes that the current factors affecting the quality of bank assets are not fully clear, but from the perspective of macroeconomic policies and banks themselves, the quality of industry assets will remain relatively stable.

Lian ping stressed that it is necessary to pay attention to the challenges that some potential risks may pose to the quality of bank assets. First, the risk transmission caused by the increase in bond defaults needs to be vigilant. Secondly, the financing channels continue to be tight and comprehensive, and some housing enterprises may face greater financial pressure. In addition, the debt risk of local government platform companies needs to be paid attention to.

Regarding the asset quality prospects, a stock bank executive said frankly: “The current pressure is still very large, and the risk clearing can not be finalized. Recently, the regulatory authorities have requested to increase credit supply. At present, the capital situation in the market is relatively loose, and interest rates are on the downside. Quality is expected to develop in a good direction.”

A series of internal and external factors will help banks maintain asset quality stability in the future. From the perspective of macroeconomics, Lian ping believes that the macro environment of banking business operations is still relatively stable, and the financing needs of market entities will rebound significantly. In the second half of the year, the central bank will continue to make policy adjustments in targeted support, and the trend of social financing scale growth will slow down further. These measures will help ease the liquidity pressure of enterprises and improve the quality of corporate assets. With the increasing emphasis on the financing difficulties and financing problems of SMEs, the targeted measures such as refinancing and refinancing will continue to improve the financing environment and financing status of SMEs and reduce the risk of SMEs.

Tang Lihua said that with the gradual improvement of market infrastructure, the bank’s own means of disposing of non-performing assets can be continuously enriched, such as market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, asset securitization, etc., plus the provision of sufficient banking industry to maintain stable asset quality. persistent. The increased scale of bank credit will help to dilute the bad. The increased vitality of the company’s own operations will help improve the quality of the banking industry’s assets.

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